Let me start by saying, I like Carrot. She’s quirky, strong, knows when to be serious vs silly, and has a fun dynamic with the rest of the Straw Hats. All the ingredients needed for a new crew member.
However, when people argue for this they usually start with the conclusion (“I like Carrot, she’s joining the Straw Hats) and then search for evidence to prove themselves right. THIS IS BAD SCIENCE.
So instead, let’s be good scientists and look at all the evidence first, then see what conclusions we can draw. Below are quick summaries of each Straw Hat’s journey into the crew. Let’s see if we can find any patterns that point to Carrot being on this path.
Zoro – Luffy says he wants Zoro to join his crew in Chapter 2, before they’ve even met. They meet in Chapter 3 and Luffy insists he joins. Zoro declines. After fighting together through out the arc he accepts.
Nami – Luffy meets Nami in Chapter 8, at the end of which Nami proposes they team up. In Chapter 9 Luffy formally asks her to join the crew. She declines. She then tricks Luffy by saying she’ll join if he helps her steal from Buggy. He agrees. They sail and fight together through out the next four arcs. At the conclusion of Arlong Park she officially becomes a member.
Ussop – Luffy meets Ussop in Chapter 23, at the end of which Ussop suggests he joins the SHs, as captain. Luffy declines. After fighting together through out the arc Usopp joins (not as captain). Luffy says “you’re already our crew mate, aren’t you?”
Sanji – Luffy meets Sanji in Chapter 44. At the beginning of Chapter 45 Luffy asks Sanji to join his crew. Sanji declines. After fighting together through out the arc Sanji accepts.
Chopper – Luffy meets Chopper in Chapter 139. He tries to eat him. In chapter 140 Nami asks Chopper to join the crew. He declines. At the end of that chapter Luffy asks Chopper to join. He declines again. After fighting together through out the arc Chopper accepts.
Robin – Luffy meets Robin in Chapter 114. He can’t decide if she’s good or bad. They don’t see each other again till Chapter 170. Robin saves Luffy’s life in Chapter 180. Robin turns on Crocodile in chapter 203. Robin saves Luffy’s life from Croc’s poison, Luffy saves Robin’s life from collapsing building. After the events of Alabasta Robin sneaks on board the Merry and asks to join. Luffy says yes, concluding that she in fact good.
Franky – Luffy meets Franky in Chapter 335. They hate each other and fight immediately. They later join forces. After fighting together through out the arc Luffy asks Franky to join. Franky at first declines, but after heartfelt speeches from his friends (and Robin’s, ahem, persuasive hands) he accepts.
Brook – Luffy meets Brook in Chapter 442. He asks him about his poop then asks him to join his crew. Brook accepts but later declines. After fighting together through out the arc Brook accepts.
Jinbe – Luffy meets Jinbe in chapter 540, Ace had already told Jimbei all about Luffy and asked him to protect him. Jinbe carefully analyzes Luffy to see if he’s worthy. They fight and travel together for the next two arcs. Jinbe saves Luffy’s life a number of times and councils him through his grief. They separate at chapter 597. They meet again (after the timeskip) in Chapter 619. After fighting together through out the arc Luffy asks Jinbe to join his crew. Jinbe reluctantly declines. They meet again in Whole Cake Island and in chapter 863 Jimbei officially declares his intention of joining the Straw Hats. He doesn’t get his own “Member of the Straw Hat Pirates” text box until the most recent chapter, 977
So what have we learned?
A pre-requisite to join the crew is fighting alongside the Straw Hats through out an arc. Check for Carrot!
However, the best bet in determining if someone’s going to become a Straw Hat is if LUFFY ASKS YOU TO JOIN RIGHT AWAY.
Not good for Carrot. There are three characters who have joined while being exceptions to this rule; Robin, Franky, and Jinbe. Let’s see if Carrot’s story has any similarities to their’s.
With Franky we knew the Straw Hats were getting a new crew member before we even met him. In Chapter 322 Luffy declared they were going to Water 7 to find a shipwright to join their crew. We didn’t know who it would be but we knew it would be someone. Turns out it was Franky. This became clear in Enies Lobby when he distinguished himself as the only non-SH to fight CP9 1 on 1.
Nico Robin is probably the most unique case to join the crew. She was a mystery throughout the Alabasta Saga and her joining the crew was a shocker to readers and characters alike. Later, Oda dedicated most of the Enies Lobby arc to solidifying her place in the crew.
Jinbe’s joining was a sloooooooow burn. He and Luffy became very close during the events of Marineford, it then took almost half the series for Jinbe to join. Luffy doesn’t even ask him to join until chapter 649 when they literally exchange blood.
So where does this leave Carrot? Unlike with Franky, Luffy hasn’t declared the need to fill a position that Carrot can hold. Unlike with Robin there would be no “surprise factor” with Carrot joining. And unlike with Jinbe there’s no hyper intense bond forged over many years (both in universe time and out).
What does Carrot have going for her? She has the above mentioned quirky/strong traits, she’s sailed on the Straw Hat ship for a long time, and she’s fought along the crew for multiple arcs (two or three depending on how you categorize the action of Zou). It’s totally possible that she joins the crew and becomes a 4th exception to the above. But is it likely? Let’s see if there are any other characters with similar cases to Carrot.
Johnny and Yosaku – They both sailed and fought with the Straw Hats for multiple arcs. Did not get character focus. Did not get offer extended to become Straw Hat.
Vivi – Sailed and fought with Straw Hats for multiple arcs. She got a lot of character focus and developed intense relationship with the crew. They asked her to join, she declined.
Ace – Fought with Straw Hats for a bit. Got lots of character focus. Intense relationship with Luffy. Ace asked Straw Hats to join the Whitebeard crew. They declined. Ace is currently dead.
Bon Clay – Kind of traveled and fought with the Straw Hats (Impel Down). Has gotten some character focus. Developed intense relationship with Luffy. Never asked to join.
Kinemon – Has sailed and fought with the Straw Hats for multiple arcs. Has gotten some character focus, unlikely to join crew.
Gangster Gastino – Sailed with and kind of fought with Straw Hats for multiple arcs. Was hated by the rest of the crew the entire time. Never asked to join.
Pedro – Sailed and fought with the Straw Hats for one arc. Got some character focus. Currently dead.
In this respect, Carrot doesn’t seem special enough to warrant an exception to the rules established above.
So based on all the evidence IT IS VERY UNLIKELY CARROT JOINS THE CREW.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, it would just break all story-telling patterns Oda has set up for the past 20 years.
*Theory by Dddddddfried
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